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With life gradually returning to normal after the epidemic and the end of the college entrance examination in June, college students are entering the graduation season. At the same time, the tourism economy reached its climax at the small peak of the Dragon Boat Festival.

Qunar, a well-known travel, ticketing, and hotel integrated app in China, recently launched a product called "Train Ticket Blind Box", specifically targeting users aged 18-26. The origin of this product includes 22 provincial capital cities across the country, four municipalities directly under the central government including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, as well as more than 70 other cities below the second tier. Therefore, many people are looking forward to the upcoming surprise trip because they have drawn tickets to popular tourist cities from the blind box. However, some people expressed their dissatisfaction on social media because they got tickets from the provincial capital go home.

In fact, in recent years, there have been more and more blind box concept products launched around young consumer groups. Whether it is the "digital collection blind box" appearing in the online universe, or the "hidden type blind box" appearing in the online circle, or the "train ticket blind box" and "plane ticket blind box" launched in the travel field, as well as the hot "durian blind box" in recent summer, these constantly evolving "blind box economies" reflect the changes in the consumption needs and concepts of young consumers.

1、 Where to go - what matters is the trip itself, not the destination

Compared to Bubble Mart's hidden blind box, for Qunar's product, the train ticket blind box is more about adding a blind box mechanism as a marketing method based on the train ticket function, seizing the opportunity. As early as two years ago, blind ticket boxes were introduced in a similar way. However, choosing the timeline for product release is often more important than whether the content is exciting or not.

In March 2021, the tourism industry had just experienced a trough caused by the epidemic, and as the weather gradually warmed up, the tourism market began to show signs of recovery. In order to seize market growth, Tongcheng Travel took the lead in launching the "Blind Ticket Box" campaign at the end of March, and successfully attracted over 20 million people's attention during the Qingming Festival holiday.

According to reports, the blind box originally launched for the same trip included domestic one-way tickets priced within 1000 yuan. Users only need to pay 98 yuan to experience a "surprise trip" from a designated departure point to a random destination nationwide. Moreover, if consumers are not satisfied with the selected tickets, they can receive a full refund.

For consumers with travel needs, ticket blind boxes not only meet basic needs, but also provide additional psychological value through the blind box mechanism. People are looking forward to winning tickets that exceed the price of the event, so they will be surprised and surprised by tickets to random destinations.

It should be noted that the ticket prices drawn by consumers in the blind box may be higher than the event prices, but this does not mean that online travel platforms or airlines will suffer losses. Usually, there are available seats for flight ticket sales, so airlines can use some of the available seats for participation in activities based on actual circumstances.

Although the market price of some event tickets is much higher than the event price, the Marginal cost of these spare seats actually does not exceed 100 yuan. Similarly, the blind box of train tickets also has empty seats, so from a commercial perspective, the railway department, online tourism platforms, and consumers will not suffer actual losses due to activities.

The 'Go Where' train ticket blind box activity has targeted young people aged 18-26 from the beginning. In recent years, the demand for tourist destinations among young people has shifted from pursuing check-in at well-known tourist attractions to focusing on experiential vacation style tourism and city strolls.

This Market trend not only reflects young people's attention to life, but also reflects their tendency to find unknown surprises in uncertainty. Young consumers generally have choice barriers and a 'gambler mentality', so they are more willing to try using train ticket blind boxes to embark on an unknown journey.

Therefore, products such as air ticket blind boxes and train ticket blind boxes not only meet basic needs, but also effectively integrate consumer psychology. Through the blind box mechanism, they have created popular marketing and achieved commercial innovation. This is the result of the continuous evolution of the "blind box economy".

2、 Bubble Mart - Exploring the Phenomenon of Blind Box Economy Fever and Cooling

Last year, Bubble Mart sparked a blind box craze with its unique blind box sales model and product settings. In addition to focusing on trendy products, Bubble Mart has successfully attracted the attention of young users and met their demand for price thresholds. This craze is largely attributed to the sales form of blind boxes and the product setup of "regular+hidden" models. From a psychological perspective, curiosity, uniqueness, and rarity drive young people to continue purchasing blind box products.

Customized IP blind box products can trigger some consumers' "collection addiction", as they obtain psychological satisfaction by collecting blind boxes. At the same time, the setting of hidden style artificially creates Scarcity, which leads to the value difference between ordinary style and hidden style, and consumers have different levels of expectations and pursuit for the open box results.

Some people even try to purchase blind boxes in order to obtain rare products, until they get the desired product. In order to obtain more scarce blind boxes, consumers will develop a "gambler mentality" and view probability problems as luck problems. Although most people expect to draw hidden funds, even if they don't, they can still obtain a certain degree of psychological satisfaction by drawing ordinary funds that they haven't received before.

In short, the core logic of the blind box economy is that when purchasing a product, consumers develop a desire for the unknown and experience mild anxiety due to the uncertainty of the outcome. Regardless of whether the unpacking result meets consumers' expectations, it can bring psychological satisfaction or alleviate anxiety to a certain extent. This is also an important reason why many young consumers are easily addicted to blind boxes and continue to consume after a period of time.

However, from a commercial perspective, relying solely on consumers to obtain psychological satisfaction from the process of dismantling blind boxes cannot support the stable and sustainable development of the blind box market. When psychological stimulation and satisfaction reach a certain level, consumers are likely to experience adaptive fatigue or even rebellious psychology. Some consumers may lower their expectations for the hidden item in the drawing due to their inability to access the blind box, or even completely lose interest in the blind box. When repeatedly drawing the same blind box, consumers may feel tired of the behavior of drawing the blind box itself.

In order to continuously bring freshness, blind box merchants need to continuously launch new products to stimulate consumers. However, improving the efficiency of launching new products does not necessarily mean a significant increase in revenue, as the accelerated launch speed of new products will inevitably have varying degrees of impact on the sales of old products. Too fast new launch speed will also weaken the Scarcity value of classic IP, and consumers may pay more attention to new products than to classic and hidden ones, leading to weak overall revenue growth.

According to relevant financial report data, the annual revenue of Bubble Mart in 2022 was 4.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.82%, while the revenue growth rate in 2021 was 78.66%, a significant decline in growth rate. This indicates that the blind box mechanism that relies on manufacturing uncertainty to attract consumers to purchase has lost its effectiveness on the pioneers of the blind box market. However, the blind box mechanism has not disappeared, but has developed new forms outside of the trendy gaming field and derived intrinsic value logic that is in line with consumer psychology.